11 Haziran 2015 Perşembe

What's Happening in Black Sea? - May, 2015

Bulgaria 



Hewlett Packard (HP) invests € 5.1 million technology lab in Sofia. HP already hired 6.000 professionals in the last 9 years in Sofia. 


Fitch downgraded Bulgaria’s First Investment Bank (Fibank) to B- from BB- with the outlook as “stable”. Now Fibank’s long term issuer default rating B- from BB-. 

Turkey’s biggest online food-ordering portal (yemeksepeti.com) expands to Bulgaria and Romania. Yemeksepeti will be making investments in online portals bgmenu.com in Bulgaria and quicky.ro and oliviera.ro in Romania, aiming to become the industry leader in the two countries. 

Japanese manufacturer of car cabling systems Yazaki opens 3rd plant with € 30 million investment. Company has already invested € 60 million since 2006. 

Bulgaria’s FDI in 1st Q was recorded as € 317.3 million, which is 0.7% of its GDP. In the same period last year, country attracted € 346.5 million. 

If elections held today in Bulgaria, ruling party Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (CEDB) gets 23.8% while Socialists and Movement for Rights and Freedoms take 14.7% and 8.0%, respectively. 

Port Burgas absorbs € 12 million investment at the end of 2015 when two new yachts are to be built. With its 230 employees, the port celebrates its 112th anniversary on 18th of May. 

Georgia

Georgia’s GDP growth keeps shining. In 1st Q, GDP rose 2.6%, with the 0.9% increase last month alone.

Due to current crisis in Russia and unstable oil prices, IMF downgraded economic growth forecast to 2.6%, previously it was 3.0%. 

Arabian Dhabi Group, focusing banking and tourism sectors, announced extra $ 250 million investment in Georgia with increasing its investment portfolio by 35%.

European Union unblocked € 2 billion investment for small businesses in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.

Greece

Greece is in "middle income trap". A recent paper from Asian Development Bank (ADB) mentions that Greece has been struggling to exit from middle income trap. Greece which became upper middle class in 1972, has found herself as "top income" league in 2000. According to the atlas of economy of complexity, Greece ranked 48th in terms of index of complexity of reports, which is the lowest in Europe. 

During Tsipras's visit to Russia, Putin has offered Greece to be a member of BRICS, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Tsipras will attend Economic Forum held on June 18th-20th in St. Petersburg, Russia to discuss matters.

According to the latest polls in Greece, results still favor for Syriza with 36.5% while New Democracy gets 15.5%. %50 of Greeks support Tsipras and Kommenos as an independent leader gets 25.5%. 

As the part of "Silkroad Investments", Chinese Cosco company invested € 4.3 billion in Piraeus port to operate port's contain terminal for 35 years. Piraeus port is strategically important as being a key hub for maritime transportation. Investments by Cosco has been increased 5 times since 2009 until 2013. 

European Union (EU) assumes merely 0.5% growth for Greece this year. In order to reach the estimations, European Bank of Re.. and Development has agreed to have $ 500 million investment deal with Greece. 

Interconnector Greece Bulgaria (IGB) gas pipeline agreement will be signed on June 12th. The agreement includes a 182 km-length gas pipeline project which enables Bulgaria to allow Azerbaijani gas. 

Greek Minister of Economy Varoufakis believes that Greece cannot afford IMF repayments in June, which is € 1.6 billion. There are rumors that Varoufakis has already been sidelined by Tsipras. Currently all discussions with troika must be agreed by Tsipras personally. 

Greece is bleeding € 22.3 million every single day. Since Tsipras took charge in January, 59 businesses shut down with 613 people losing jobs per day.


Greece debt in numbers
  • € 320 billion total debt
  • € 240 billion European bailout
  • € 56 billion Greece owes to Germany
  • 177 % country's debt to GDP ratio
  • 25% fall in GDP since 2010
  • 26% unemployment rate










Romania

Romanian FDI increases %55 in the 1st Q to € 885 million. Country attracted € 2.43 billion last year with 10.6% decrease by 2013. Largest FDI recorded in Romania’s history was in 2008 with € 9.5 billion.

Romania’s largest lender Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR) gets 50 million $ credit from World Bank (WB). BCR plans to use the money to offer new financings for importers and exporters in Romania. 

Romania expects the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) to have a great impact on its economy. While the negotiations continue, Romania estimates TTIP to add 0.25% to the growth annually while increase 35% in exports and 25% in imports.

Russia

Russian Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev mentions that there will be 2.3% - 2.4% expand each year in 2016-2018 period, with the help by recovering oil prices to reach $ 70 per barrel by 2016, which is currently 60 $. However, Ulyukayev expects this year contract by 2.8%.

Rosneft, Russia’s top oil producers agreed to invest $ 14 billion in Venezuela’s oil and gas sector.

Turkey 

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) becomes the first Chinese bank in Turkey. ICBC purchased 75.5% shares of Turkish bank Tekstilbank for $ 254 million. 

Turkish FDI decreased 19% in the 1st Q from $ 4.26 billion to 3.45. FDI falls by more than third (37.0%) from $ 1.42 billion to $ 900 million in March. 

Ordu-Giresun Airport, first airport on artificial island in Turkey and Europe and 5th in the world, was completed in 4 years with $ 132.6 million. Turkey plans to have 60 airports by 2023.

Turkey hosts 41 million visitors in 2014 with $ 3 billion income annually. Continuous growth of Turkish Airlines has a significant impact on the 5.6% increase of visitors to the country.

Ukraine 

Economists warn Ukraine that the country could see its economy shrink by 5.5% to 10.0% in 2015. According to the latest expectations from IMF, Ukrainian economy decreases 5.5% at the end of the year. In addition to the aid from European Union, IMF also pumped $ 17.5 billion into the country. There are also rumors that Ukraine could find itself into moratorium.



Not only in the battle field but also in the economic war, Ukraine is losing to Russia. Ukraine and Russia had the same GDP in 1990 and the GDP gap between these countries is now much greater.



Graphs from Black Sea Region


  • External Trade



















  • Foreign Direct Investment






  • GDP






  • Unemployment



  • Markets









  • Energy





  • Population

  • Tourism







  • Military

Source: www.knoema.com, www.worldbank.org 



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