What's happening in Black Sea? - January & February, 2016

Bulgaria

• According to the Corruption Perceptions Index of Transparency International, Bulgaria ranked 69th in 2015, which was same for the previous year. The country is the most corrupt country among the member states of the European Union.
• Bulgarian Finance Minister Bulgaria expressed that the country ended 2015 with a budget deficit of BGN 2.47 billion, equivalent to 2.9% of the country's GDP. It was 3.7% of GDP for the previous year. 
• The World Bank modified its forecast for Bulgaria’s economic growth as 2.2% increase in 2016.
• According to the Central Bank of Bulgaria, 11% of Bulgaria’s GDP will be formed by information and communications technology (ICT) industry in 2016.
• Bulgarian Union of International Carriers told in a local newspaper that the protests of Greek farmers which started in the third week of January costed more than € 10 million for Bulgarian business. 
• Bulgaria ranked 60th based on the Index of Economic Freedom, published annually by The Wall Street Journal.
• The European Commission forecasted Bulgarian economy to grow by 1.5% in 2016 and 2% in 2017.

Georgia

• National Statistics of Georgia estimated that Georgia's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 2.8% in 2015, better than the forecast of European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) as 2.3%. 
• EBRD considers to offer € 2.2 million to Georgia to modernize the sewage systems in Kobuleti town. 
• Bloomberg declared its forecast for Georgia’s economy to grow by 3% in 2016.
• The World Bank announced that Georgia’s economy is expected to grow by 3% and 4.5% in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
• With the agreement signed by the Georgian Ministry of Finance and World Bank, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) will give $ 140 million for funding 8.3 km-long construction of Zemo Osiauri-Chumateleti road section.
• According to Georgia's Economy and Sustainable Development Ministry, a U.S.-Georgian consortium will invest around $ 2.5 billion in Georgia to build and develop a deep-sea port in Anaklia on Georgia's Black Sea coast. 

Greece

• Piraeus Bank, Greece's largest lender, has sacked the bank's chief executive Anthimos Thomopoulos due to failure to complete € 1.4 billion capital raising. 
• Standard & Poor's upgraded Greece's credit rating to B- after positive slight developments in the economy. 
• Eldorado Gold, Canadian mining company, plans to shut down its gold mine operations at Skouires with cutting 600 jobs. The company mentioned that they will be firing 500 more workers in the upcoming months in 2016. 

Romania

• Fitch Ratings confirmed Romania's investment grade at BBB- and BBB level for the the long term and the local currency, respectively. 
• The shopping center Mercur Craiova, owned by local investment fund SIF Oltenia, is planning to invest around € 10 million in 20.000 m2.
• Sonaca, Belgian aircraft parts manufacturer, plans to build a new facility in Romania with the help of an $ 8.5 million aid from EBRD. 
• Romanian real estate trade volume in 2015 recorded as € 644 million, 45% lower than 2014, putting the country in 5th position in Central and East Europe Region.
• According to Economist, Romanian economy is expected to grow by 3.9% in 2016, as the highest in Europe.
• The World Bank improved Romania’s economic growth forecast to 3.9% and 4.1% for 2016 and 2017, respectively.
• The Romanian National Bank expressed that the foreign exchange reserves amounted to € 32.24 billion at the end of 2015.
• According to Romania’s National Bank, the foreign direct investments in Romania reached to almost € 3 billion in 2015, the best performance after 2009.
• ALB Romania, leasing association in the country, declared that the financial leasing market increased by 15% to € 1.6 billion in 2015. The car financing formed 76% of the total, while equipment financing took 20% and real estate sector with 2.7% 
• Romanian National Statistics Institute announced that the country’s economy grew by 3.7% in 2015, which is the highest growth rate since 2008.
• The European Investment Bank (EIB) declared that the Bank loaned € 228 million in Romania 2015. The Bank’s total loan to Romania in the last five years reached to € 2.6 billion.
• Vast Resources, the British mining company, announced that the company invested over € 4.5 million in Romania last year for two mines located in Bihor and Suceava counties.
• Romanian National Statistics Institute mentioned that Romania’s industry had 1.3 million employees in 2014, which was 300.000 less than the previous analyze in 2008.

Russia

• Due to the low oil price and international sanctions, Russia's economy shrank by 3.7% in 2015. 
• According to the United Nations (UN) World Investment Report for 2015, foreign direct investments in Russia decreased by 92% in 2015, even though it increased with 36% for around the globe.
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced its expectation for Russian economy as 1% contraction in 2016.

Turkey

• SOCAR Turkey Energy, Azerbaijani SOCAR’s Turkey based company, expressed that Baku-Tblisi-Kars railway project will attract new investments in all three countries. 
• After JP Morgan Cazenove’s Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and North Africa (CEEMEA) strategy report on crucial transactions, JP Morgan increased Turkey’s investment note from “neutral” to “overweight”. 
• According to the Prime Ministry Investment Support and Promotion Agency (ISPAT), direct international investment in Turkey rose by 32% in 2015, amounting to $16.6 billion. The three countries with the highest net investments in Turkey were Spain, the United States and Luxembourg, followed by the Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Russia, the United Kingdom, China and Germany.

Ukraine

• Naftogaz of Ukraine refused to pay the bill reaching to $ 2.59 billion to Gazprom, Russian gas company due to the company's announcement for that case as illegal. 
• In 2015, the EBRD agreed total of 30 investment projects in Ukraine reaching € 1 billion. Projects mainly cover natural resources, agribusiness and financial sectors. 
• Cargill announced that the company plans to invest $ 100 million in an Ukrainian port in order to build a grain terminal on Black Sea. 
• Ukrainian Ministry of Economic Development expressed that the country’s GDP decreased by 10.4% in 2015. 
• According to Ukrainian media report referring to the Saudi newspaper Al-Watan, Saudi businessmen plan to invest around $ 10.5 billion into Ukraine’s agricultural industry.

Sinop Ekonomi Verileri (Ocak, 2016)

Dış Ticaret Genel Görünüm 

Ocak ayı sonu itibariyle Sinop ilinin dış ticaret verileri değerlendirildiğinde ay sonunda %3 oranında ihracat artışı görülmüştür. İthalatta ise ilk ay sonunda 538.000 $ ithalat ile bir önceki yılın ilk ayına göre yaklaşık %20 azalma yaşanmıştır. 

İlk ay su ürünleri sezonun devam etmesinden ötürü 470.000 $ ihracat ile ilk sırada bu sektör ön plana çıkmıştır. Genel olarak Ukrayna’ya gönderilen yaş meyve ve sebze ihracatı 381.000 $ ile ikinci, mobilya ürünleri ihracatı ise 133.000 $ ile üçüncü olmuştur. İthalatta ise bir yıl aradan sonra yine çinko ithalatı başlamış görülmektedir. Yine geçen yıldan farklı olarak eczacılık ürünleri ithalatının da (halihazırda bu sektörde üretim ve ihracat yapan firmaların kullanımına yönelik) gerçekleştirildiği dikkat çekmiştir. 

İhracatta genel olarak en önemli partnerler olan Ukrayna, Güney Kore ve Japonya 2016 yılı Ocak ayı sonunda ilk üçte yer almıştır. Çin ithalatta ilk sırada yer alırken, 2015 yılı Ocak ayında ithalat yapılmayan ve yıl boyunca oldukça düşük rakamlarda ithalatın gerçekleştirildiği Kazakistan ve Avusturya’nın ilk 3’te yer alması yeni dış ticaret partnerlerinin oluşturulması açısından önemli olmuştur. 

Dış Ticaret Performansı 

Son 4 yıldaki Ocak ayı performansları değerlendirildiğinde 2013 yılından sonra performansta büyük düşüş yaşandığı ve stabil devam ettiği izlenmiştir. 2013 yılı Ocak ayı sonunda 4,5 milyon $ olan ihracat, 2016 yılı Ocak ayı sonunda ise 1,2 milyon $ olarak not edilmiştir. İthalatta ise inişli çıkışlı grafik devam etmiş, 2013 yılı Ocak ayı sonuna kıyasla daha yüksek ithalat rakamlarına ulaşılmıştır. 2013 yılı ilk ayında 318.000 $ ithalat gerçekleşmişken, 2016 yılında ise bu rakam 538.000 $ olmuştur.

Açılan Kapanan Firma Performansı 

TOBB’dan alınan verilere göre, 2016 yılı Ocak ayında toplam 7 yeni işletme (şahıs ve limited) kurulmuş ve 4 işletme de kapanmıştır. Açılan işletme sayısında son dört yılın Ocak ayı sonları incelendiğinde 2014 yılında görülen pikten sonra düşme yaşanmış, kapanan işletme sayısı ise sevindirici düzeye inmiştir. 

Yatırım Teşvik Belgesi Performansı 

2012 yılında açıklanan teşvik sistemi sonrası 2012 ve 2013 yıllarında Sinop ilinde görülen canlanma sonrasında 2014 ve 2015 yıllarında Sinop ilinde planlanan yatırımlara yönelik hazırlanan yatırım teşvik belge sayısında büyük düşüşler yaşanmıştır. 2013-2016 yılları arasında Ocak ayı sonu baz alındığında 2015 yılında belge çıkarılmamış, 2016 yılında ise özel sektöre yönelik 1 belgenin hazırlandığı görülmüştür.

Konut Satış Performansı 

Sinop ilinde son dönemde konut sektörünün hızla geliştiği, yeni konutların da yüksek talep gördüğü not edilmiştir. Özellikle 2013 yılından itibaren konut satışları aylık periyotlarda ve sonuç olarak toplamda yıllar itibariyle artış göstermiştir. 2013 yılı Ocak ayı sonunda Sinop ilinde 148 konut satılmış iken 2016 yılında bu rakam 187’e yükselmiştir.

Not: Yazıda belirtilen kaynaklardan ilgili veriler alınarak tarafımca tablo ve grafikler hazırlanmıştır.

Black Sea Region’s GDP: Growing despite the obstacles

In my previous articles, I always considered Black Sea Region as “new Africa” in terms of attracting investments. Supporting to that idea, countries in the region has been working heavily on improving their “doing business” rankings, giving more incentives to both domestic and foreign investors and developing facilities. According to World Bank’s Doing Business index, Georgia remained 24th in the world, making the country the best in the region regarding this area. Indeed, there are great disadvantages of the region currently, such as high political tension between Russia and Ukraine, Greece’s continuous economic crisis, Romania’s newly changed government due to corruption scandals and recently, damaged Turkey – Russia’s relationship. Despite all these disadvantages, Black Sea economy is still doing fine, even Greece, whose GDP finally witnessed a growth in the end of 2014 after 6 years decrease in a row. 

Between the period of 2011-2014, these countries in Black Sea followed up and down trends in terms of GDP growth, except Greece. Turkey shines in the graph with its record 8.8% growth in 2011 and maintained its positive growth rates in the following years with reaching $ 798.43 billion in the end of 2014. Russia and Ukraine got affected heavily by the war; both countries’ GDP fell dramatically after 2011. Ukraine’s GDP shrank by %6.8 in 2014 while Russia had only 0.6% growth and decreased to $ 1,860.60 billion in 2014. Georgia, the best condition in the Black Sea region in terms of doing business numbers, maintained its positive trend for its GDP and ended by $ 16.93 billion at the end of 2014, as still the lowest in the region. Even though Greece has been suffering from the deep crisis, the country’s GDP was $ 235.57 billion in 2014, which makes the country third biggest in the region. The significant key in the graph is that Greece finally achieved its GDP to grow by 0.7%, despite the fact that it was forecasted negative for 2015. Bulgaria and Romania have been taking baby steps in GDP growth, growing less than 2% and 3.5%, respectively. Bulgaria’s GDP was recorded as $ 56.72 billion, making the country as the second lowest in this area in the region, while Romania reached $ 199.04 billion GDP with a prosperous investment friendly for the upcoming years.

Greece, one of the developed economies since the end of late 1990’s and now striving to survive from the economic crisis since 2008, has still the highest GDP per capita in the region with $ 21,500. As the newest members of European Union (after Croatia), Romania and Bulgaria have had clear positive effects of joining EU on their economy; both countries’ GDP per capita have risen and Romania passed $ 10,000 bar in 2014. Due to oil prices and political actions, Russia’s GDP started falling after reaching the peak with $ 14,500 per capita in 2013 and decreased to $ 12,750 just after one year. Georgia’s GDP per capita stayed stable around $ 3,670, and passed Ukraine in 2014, which was only $ 3,000 as the lowest in the region. Lastly, Turkey has been fighting against “middle income trap” leaving the country’s GDP per capita around $ 10,500 for the last six years.

2016 already started more troubling for some countries in Black Sea. The most conspicuous action was the damage to the trade between Russia and Turkey, where the volume was more than $ 30 billion in 2014. According to the GDP growth estimations and forecasts analyzed by the World Bank and shown in the graph below, the negative growth is expected for Greece, Russia and Ukraine for 2015, which was obvious due to the reasons mentioned before, but yet a small increase for these countries is estimated in the end of 2017. The World Bank forecasts for Georgia, Romania and Turkey to maintain GDP growth in both 2016 and 2017. All in all, 2015 was not the best year for economic growth in Black Sea region, but positive events anticipation in the region (both political and economic) may lead great results in the next two years, which is also confirmed in the graph.