In my previous articles, I always considered Black Sea Region as “new Africa” in terms of attracting investments. Supporting to that idea, countries in the region has been working heavily on improving their “doing business” rankings, giving more incentives to both domestic and foreign investors and developing facilities. According to World Bank’s Doing Business index, Georgia remained 24th in the world, making the country the best in the region regarding this area. Indeed, there are great disadvantages of the region currently, such as high political tension between Russia and Ukraine, Greece’s continuous economic crisis, Romania’s newly changed government due to corruption scandals and recently, damaged Turkey – Russia’s relationship. Despite all these disadvantages, Black Sea economy is still doing fine, even Greece, whose GDP finally witnessed a growth in the end of 2014 after 6 years decrease in a row.
Between the period of 2011-2014, these countries in Black Sea followed up and down trends in terms of GDP growth, except Greece. Turkey shines in the graph with its record 8.8% growth in 2011 and maintained its positive growth rates in the following years with reaching $ 798.43 billion in the end of 2014. Russia and Ukraine got affected heavily by the war; both countries’ GDP fell dramatically after 2011. Ukraine’s GDP shrank by %6.8 in 2014 while Russia had only 0.6% growth and decreased to $ 1,860.60 billion in 2014. Georgia, the best condition in the Black Sea region in terms of doing business numbers, maintained its positive trend for its GDP and ended by $ 16.93 billion at the end of 2014, as still the lowest in the region. Even though Greece has been suffering from the deep crisis, the country’s GDP was $ 235.57 billion in 2014, which makes the country third biggest in the region. The significant key in the graph is that Greece finally achieved its GDP to grow by 0.7%, despite the fact that it was forecasted negative for 2015. Bulgaria and Romania have been taking baby steps in GDP growth, growing less than 2% and 3.5%, respectively. Bulgaria’s GDP was recorded as $ 56.72 billion, making the country as the second lowest in this area in the region, while Romania reached $ 199.04 billion GDP with a prosperous investment friendly for the upcoming years.
Between the period of 2011-2014, these countries in Black Sea followed up and down trends in terms of GDP growth, except Greece. Turkey shines in the graph with its record 8.8% growth in 2011 and maintained its positive growth rates in the following years with reaching $ 798.43 billion in the end of 2014. Russia and Ukraine got affected heavily by the war; both countries’ GDP fell dramatically after 2011. Ukraine’s GDP shrank by %6.8 in 2014 while Russia had only 0.6% growth and decreased to $ 1,860.60 billion in 2014. Georgia, the best condition in the Black Sea region in terms of doing business numbers, maintained its positive trend for its GDP and ended by $ 16.93 billion at the end of 2014, as still the lowest in the region. Even though Greece has been suffering from the deep crisis, the country’s GDP was $ 235.57 billion in 2014, which makes the country third biggest in the region. The significant key in the graph is that Greece finally achieved its GDP to grow by 0.7%, despite the fact that it was forecasted negative for 2015. Bulgaria and Romania have been taking baby steps in GDP growth, growing less than 2% and 3.5%, respectively. Bulgaria’s GDP was recorded as $ 56.72 billion, making the country as the second lowest in this area in the region, while Romania reached $ 199.04 billion GDP with a prosperous investment friendly for the upcoming years.
Greece, one of the developed economies since the end of late 1990’s and now striving to survive from the economic crisis since 2008, has still the highest GDP per capita in the region with $ 21,500. As the newest members of European Union (after Croatia), Romania and Bulgaria have had clear positive effects of joining EU on their economy; both countries’ GDP per capita have risen and Romania passed $ 10,000 bar in 2014. Due to oil prices and political actions, Russia’s GDP started falling after reaching the peak with $ 14,500 per capita in 2013 and decreased to $ 12,750 just after one year. Georgia’s GDP per capita stayed stable around $ 3,670, and passed Ukraine in 2014, which was only $ 3,000 as the lowest in the region. Lastly, Turkey has been fighting against “middle income trap” leaving the country’s GDP per capita around $ 10,500 for the last six years.
2016 already started more troubling for some countries in Black Sea. The most conspicuous action was the damage to the trade between Russia and Turkey, where the volume was more than $ 30 billion in 2014. According to the GDP growth estimations and forecasts analyzed by the World Bank and shown in the graph below, the negative growth is expected for Greece, Russia and Ukraine for 2015, which was obvious due to the reasons mentioned before, but yet a small increase for these countries is estimated in the end of 2017. The World Bank forecasts for Georgia, Romania and Turkey to maintain GDP growth in both 2016 and 2017. All in all, 2015 was not the best year for economic growth in Black Sea region, but positive events anticipation in the region (both political and economic) may lead great results in the next two years, which is also confirmed in the graph.
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