What's happening in Black Sea? - August, 2015

Bulgaria

• Bulgarian government officials seek to attract Azerbaijani investors in energy sector. The Greece-Bulgaria Interconnector is currently a gas pipeline project which will allow Bulgaria to receive Azerbaijani gas, mostly from the second stage of development of Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz gas and condensate field. According to the Azerbaijan State Statistics Committee, the trade between the two countries reached to $124.596 million in 2014.
• Bozhidar Lukarski, Bulgarian Economy Minister, has mentioned that foreign direct investments in the first half of 2015 amounted to € 799 million, GDP growth reached to 2.2%, much better than EU average of 1.6%. The minister believes Chinese, Swedish and German firms are already in touch with Bulgarian officials to move their production to the country.
• Bulgarian National Bank announced that the country attracted € 178 million in June, 40% more than the same month in 2014.
• EU statistics agency Eurostat confirmed that the unemployment rate in Bulgaria fell by 1.5% compared to 2014 Q2, to a rate of 9.9%. 
• Bulgarian Central Bank (BCB) expects economic growth at 1.4% in 2015, higher compared to European Commission (EC) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) expectations at 1.0% and 1.2%, respectively. BCB anticipates Bulgarian inflation as between -1.0% and -0.1% for Q3, -0.8% and 0.4% for Q4 in 2015.
• Economy Minister Lukarski announced that Multivac, Germany-based market leader in packaging solutions, will invest € 15 million in Bulgaria. The Company has already a facility employing 35 people in Bulgaria. 

Georgia

• Georgian Finance Ministry announced Georgian external debt as $ 4.15 billion. The country has 17 bilateral creditors owing $ 704 million.
• Georgian National Statistics Department published the foreign direct investments data for 2014. Georgia attracted $1,758 million worth of FDIs in 2014 by 87% increase compared to 2013. The top originator countries for investments were Netherlands with 21%, Azerbaijan 19% and China 12%. 
• The Department also mentioned that the country’s economy slowed to 2.6% in first half of 2015, suffering the side effects of a plunge in Russian rouble. According to the data from the Department, Georgian economy slowed every single month in 2015 compared to previous year.
• Georgian Ministry of Agriculture expressed that compared to 2014, the amount of Georgian agricultural products exported to European Union (EU) and the United States (US) is increasing by 84% and 21%, respectively. In the first seven months of 2015, Georgian exports to US amounted to $ 3.48 million and EU to $ 100.5 million. The country’s leading exports are wine and spirits, hazelnuts and mineral waters.  
• The Asian Development Bank confirmed a $ 20 million loan to stem coastal erosion around the Black Sea tourist destination of Batumi, Georgia. The Bank has been supporting Georgia since 2007 with a total of $ 1.6 billion. 
• Georgian government is planning to install wind farms for 2016-2019 period with a total capacity reaching 1.45 GW. Georgia has already signed a memorandum of understanding with Energy Windpower, Turkish developer, in May 2014 to invest up to $ 1.4 billion to construct 1.5 GW of wind farms.

Greece

• Greece’s statistics company mentioned that the country’s economy grew 0.9% in Q2 compared to Q1 of 2015.
• According to a survey done by Gallup, an American poll research company, the majority of Greeks (62%) do not wish to support the US’ and EU’s sanctions against Russia. Also, the survey showed that Greeks believe that sanctions affected negatively on the country’s economy. 

Romania

• Romanian Economy Ministry expressed that the country is planning to start building helicopter factory in 2015, should the legal procedure will be met on time. In September 2014, the former Economy Minister Constantin Nita and the Airbus Helicopters president Guillaume Faury signed a memorandum on the Super Puma MK 1 project.
• Garanti Bank, a Turkish group and local lender in Romania, revised Romania’s GDP growth to 3% for 2015, and 3.5% for 2016. 
• Romanian National Statistics Institute (INS) expressed that the country’s GDP increased by 3.7% in the first half of 2015 compared to the same period in 2014. 
• Austrian Erste Group, the owner of Romanian lender Banca Comerciala Romania (BCR), revised its estimations on private consumption growth in Romania to 4.5% from 3.6 for 2015. The Group has warned that this could lead economy overheating risks in the country. 
• The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will finance two public projects covering country’s waste management system improvements and supplying water and wastewater services with € 11.6 million to make 780.000 people total in the region benefit. The EBRD has invested over € 7 billion in Romania to date.
• Romania’s Agency for the Funding of Rural Investment (AFIR) has received 1.400 projects within 2014-2020 National Rural Development Programme’s framework, which is funded by EU with a total worth of € 9.5 billion for 2014-2020. Romania is currently aiming to install young farmers all over the country. 
• According to Romanian Insider News, South African investment fund NEPI has bought Iris Shopping Center in Bucharest from German group Aberdeen Asset Management for € 86 million. NEPI has purchased Promenada mall in northern Bucharest for another € 148 million and currently plans to develop two shopping centers as Mega Mall and Vulcan Value Center in the country. 
• British mining company Vast Resources announced to plan investing $ 4 million in two mines in Suceava and Baia Mare mines, in northern Romania. The company has already bought 50.1% stake in Manaila mine from Sinarom Mining Group. 

Russia

• Russian Statistics Agency reported that Russia’s economy shrank by 4.6% in Q2 of 2015, which is the worst performance since 2009. The country’s economy hit terribly by the eroding the value of the ruble and also the sanctions done by EU and US against the country.
• The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has lowered the key interest rate from 11.5% to 11.0%, which is the fifth consecutive cut in 2015. CBR expected GDP to decrease in Q2 of 2015 and expressed that major macroeconomic indicators showed Russian economy cooling. CBR estimates the annual inflation will be lower than 7% in July, 2016 and reach 4% target in 2017.
• According to Russia’s Economic Development Ministry, the country’s GDP dropped by 3.6% for January-July period, compared to the same period in 2014. The ministry also revised Russia’s GDP decline to 3.3% from 2.8%. 

Turkey

• According to Bloomberg, record lira weakness a political uncertainty leaving the country without a government affect Turkish economy deeply. Currently, Moody’s rates Turkey at its lowest investment grade with a negative outlook. Standard & Poor’s rates the country at its highest junk level. The net outflows from Turkish debt reach reached the record level in the last 10 years. 
• The Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT) announced that the country’s current account deficit was $ 3.36 billion in June, much better compared to June of 2014 ($ 4.93 billion). 
• Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) expressed that Turkey’s annual inflation rate decreased to 6.81%, below 7% as the first time in 26 months. 
• EBRD is planning to make record equity investments in Turkey this year with a worth of € 400 million, including purchasing stakes in Borsa Istanbul. The Bank has already invested $ 800 million in 17 projects for the first half of 2015. 
• The rating agency Moody’s mentioned that elections in Turkey due to November will be likely to damage the country’s economy. Moody’s warned that Turkish Lira recorded its lowest against dollar by losing 24% of its value in 2015. 
• Anadolu Agency declared that foreign direct investments in Turkey reached $ 6.3 billion in the first half of 2015 by 9.6% decrease compared to the same period in the last year. Around 40% of total FDIs came from EU member countries while 38% from Asia. 
• According to Bloomberg, Turkish companies’ foreign exchange short position reached to $ 180 billion for the period of January – May due to the currency volatility. 
• Bloomberg also declared that CBRT could not achieve the inflation target which was set as 6.9% for a fifth year. It is expected that the currency depreciation causes a negative impact on the cost of goods. 

Ukraine

• EU Delegation to Ukraine has declared that EU has confirmed € 8.55 million to improve border management in the country. 
• IMF approved $ 1.7 billion loan to help the sustainability of the country’s debt. IMF also mentioned that Ukraine needs $ 15.3 billion in order to overcome economic and political difficulties.
• Ukrainian Central Bank has reduced the country’s main interest rate by 27%. 
• The World Bank (WB) agreed $ 500 million loan to Ukraine in order to help the country’s structural and macroeconomic reforms. Ukrainian economy has dropped 6.8% in 2014, and is forecasted to have a deeper recession with 9.5% decrease in 2015.
• Ukrainian Economy Ministry expressed that the country’s GDP dropped by 16% for the period of January – July. According to the Ministry officials, economy is expected to grow by 2% in 2016 with further increases by 3-4% in 2017 – 2019 period.