What's happening in Black Sea? - November & December, 2015

Bulgaria

• Ernst & Young announced that shadow economy in Bulgaria reached to 17.1 % of the country’s GDP. Production of foods, beverages and tobacco products form the most shadow economy in the country with 43%.
• Bulgarian entrepreneurs in industry expect the economy to decrease by 32.6% in 2015, compared to 2014. 
• Standard & Poor’s re-affirmed Bulgaria’s credit rating as BB+, which is one notch below the investment grade, with a stable outlook.
• Fitch also confirmed Bulgaria’s long-term foreign currency credit rating and local currency credit rating as BBB- and BBB, respectively. 
• Sofia Airport has hosted record-high 4 million passengers in 2015.
• According to Forbes magazine, Bulgaria is ranked 45th in the magazine’s best countries for business report. In terms of “trade freedom”, the country is positioned as 9th. 
• Bulgaria and Greece signed an investment agreement to start building natural gas pipeline, according to Bulgarian Energy Minister Temenuzhka Petkova. The investment is estimated to reach € 220 million and around € 45 million will be provided by European Union. 
• Bulgarian National Bank expressed that Foreign direct investment in Bulgaria has increased by 37.5% in January-October period of 2015, compared to the same period of the previous year. FDIs reached to € 1.37 billion in the first ten months of 2015. 
• The Bulgarian Government expects the country’s economy to grow by 2.1% in 2016.
• National Statistics Institute in Bulgaria released information to mention that Bulgarian GDP grew by 2.9% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2015. 

Georgia

• Standard & Poor’s confirmed Georgia’s long and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings as BB- and B, respectively, with a stable outlook. 
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Georgia’s economy to grow by more than 2.0% in 2016 and 6% in 2017.
• Georgia’s foreign trade turnover decreased 14% in the first nine months of 2015, compared to the same period of the previous year. During this period, the country exported $ 1.83 billion while imported $ 6.29 billion. 
• National Statistics Office of Georgia announced that the country’s GDP grew by 5.3% year on year in November 2015.

Greece 

• World Bank’s International Finance Corporation (IFC) plans to invest € 300 million in the recapitilisation of Greece’s four big banks namely National, Piraeus, Eurobank and Alpha. 
• IMF mentioned in its World Economic Outlook Report that although Greek economy decreased by 2.3% in 2015, the country’s economy may recover by the end of 2017 with 2.7% increase. 
• According to the Hellenic Statistical Authority, Greece’s economy shrunk by 0.9% in the third quarter of 2015. 
• Greek Statistics Agency Elstat announced that unemployment in Greece fell slightly by 24.6% in September. 
• According to Greece’s Syriza-led government, zero growth in country’s GDP is expected for 2015, compared to 2.3% in an earlier forecast. 
• National Bank of Greece (NBG) has agreed to sell its shares on Finansbank to Qatar National Bank for a price of € 2.75 billion. 
• The Greek privatization agency expressed that Greece agreed to give 14 regional airports’ operation rights to a German airport operator Fraport for € 1.2 billion. 

Romania 

• Catalin Cretu, Visa Europe Regional Director for Romania, expressed that the country’s underground economy represents 28% of its GDP, reaching to € 30 billion. 
• After the resignation of Victor Ponta, new Government has been formed by Dacian Ciolos, new Prime Minister of Romania. The new cabinet will run the country until the next elections held in December, 2016. 
• According to the European Statistics Office, Romania has the highest growth rate in European Union with 1.4% increase in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter. 
• Romanian Central Bank kept its monetary policy rate steady at 1.75% until early 2017. 
• Private healthcare network Regina Maria has invested € 1.8 million in Romania to open a clinic in Lasi city. The company has already reached 24 units across the country with 3.000 employees. 
• Banca Transilvania, local bank in Romania, expects the country’s economy to grow by 5.1% in 2016 and 5.2% in 2017. 
• National Institute for Statistics in Romania announced that Romania’s GDP increased by 3.7% during January-September period in 2015 as compared to the same period of the previous year. 
• Real estate market in Romania is estimated to reach to € 800 million in 2016 with new projects. 
• German car parts producer Continental Tires invested € 10.5 million for its factory located in Timisoara city. 
• According to Romania’s National Bank, the foreign direct investments in Romania increased to € 270 million in October, reached to € 2.784 billion total in January-October period of 2015. 
• The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) plans to give € 67.5 million loan to Romanian town of Sibiu in order to provide urban infrastructure. 

Russia 

• Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak expressed that the Russian Government plans to invest around $ 53 billion into renewable energy sector by 2035. 
• Russia has proposed a deal to Ukraine to restructure of $ 3 billion debt in order to lower the tension between two countries. 
• IMF expects Russian economy to contract by 3.8 % in 2015 and 0.6% in 2016, mostly due to the headwinds from lower oil prices. 
• After the incident with the downed Russian plane, Russia imposed economic restrictions on Turkey in various sectors which cause serious economic damages to both sides. . According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Russian sanctions may slow down Turkey’s economic growth by 0.3 - 0.7% in 2016. 
• Russia launched its own rating agency named Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA). 
• Russia confirmed that the country plans to issue new banknotes showing Crimea landmark. 
• Russia’s Gazprom company announced a new investment worth to $ 2.32 billion to construct 822 km section of 3,246 km Power of Siberia gas pipeline connecting Russia and China.

Turkey 

• Nihat Zeybekci, Economy Minister of Turkey expects Turkish economy to grow by 5% in 2016, with an unemployment target lower 10%. 
• Standard & Poor’s confirmed Turkey’s foreign currency rating at BB+ and Turkish lira sovereign rating at BBB- with negative outlooks. 
• According to the Central Bank of Turkey, Turkey attracted $ 791 million of foreign direct investments in September, with reaching to $ 12.6 billion in January-September period of 2015. 
• The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) announced to continue its investments in Turkey around $ 1.7 billion in 2015 and $ 1.8 billion in 2016. 
• Yasuhisa Kawamura, the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed that Japanese investments in Turkey will increase and reach $ 3.5 billion trade volume between two nations. 
• Turkish Exporters Assembly (TIM) announced that Turkey’s exports dropped by 10.5% ($ 11.43 billion) in November, compared to the same month in the previous year.

Ukraine 

• Natalie Jaresko, Ukraine’s Finance Minister expected Ukraine’s treasury deficit to stand at 7.3% of the country’s GDP by the end of 2015. 
• The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP as 11.5% decline in 2015, which was 9% in the previous forecast. EBRD also expects a 2% growth in the country’s GDP in 2016. 
• The European Investment Bank (EIB) has agreed to loan € 400 million to Ukraine in order to finance the country’s agricultural sector projects. 
• Canadian government announced that the country will contribute $ 13.6 million to the Canada-Ukraine Trade and Investment Support Project between 2016 and 2020 to help small and medium size Ukrainian companies to access global markets.